“管院教授论坛”系列学术讲座第33期
活动安排
时间：2025年12月23日（周二）16: 00-17:00
讲座地点：松江校区2教235
主 讲 人：张健 上海外国语大学国际工商管理学院 教授
主题：Beyond Financials: A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Earnings Changes
讲座摘要
Using the full text of official annual reports from municipal governments and local firms in China, we develop a state-of-the-art machine learning model to predict one-year-ahead earnings changes. Our approach significantly expands the set of predictors beyond financial data by incorporating measures of government-business nexus and key macroeconomic variables. By employing ensemble learning, our model achieves an AUC of 78.37%, demonstrating substantial improvement over conventional machine learning techniques. Our results validate the critical predictive value of both the ensemble method and the newly incorporated measures of government alignment and macroeconomic factors.
主讲人简介
张健，教授、博士生导师、美国天普大学工商管理博士，上海市人才项目获得者，一直致力于公司金融实证研究，取得一系列重要研究成果。主持国家自然科学基金面上项目、青年项目以及教育部人文社科青年项目、资政报告获省部级领导批示；在Management Science、Journal of Business Ethics和Journal of Corporate Finance等期刊发表高水平论文三十余篇。担任Financial Innovation期刊编委、China Finance Review International青年编委等学术兼职。
承办单位
国际工商管理学院
